Evaluating Liverpool's EPL title chances
Handicapping EPL title contenders at the midway point
Liverpool's chances of winning the Premier League:
They won’t accumulate many style points but one thing is for certain: This is a resilient bunch and no matter how awful they play, they most often find a way to win. Fernando Torres stole them a point on the first day of the season after a turgid display. The next game Steven Gerrard pulled the game out in the 90th minute, despite trailing 1-0 at the half. Dirk Kuyt also helped his side steal the spoils from Manchester City when they were down 2-0 early with a last-gasp winner. In all 11 of 24 Liverpool goals were scored after the 75th minute.
Being able to win late and ugly is a hallmark of champions, but these cardiac kids have made it an art-form.
Steven Gerrard is playing like his old self, despite battling through niggling injuries and that has to be encouraging for their long-term prospects. Meanwhile, the defense is stern, with only nine conceded. Daniel Agger has filled in wonderfully for the injured Martin Skrtel, despite some brain-cramps. He offers more going forward and Liverpool have benefitted.
Finally, the Reds will continue to do well if “Pepe” Reina maintains his reputation as a top goalkeeper. Liverpool are one of the few contenders that are comfortable in goal. He’s a gifted shot stopper and he commands his area well. He may be susceptible to high balls in, but that’s why he has Jamie Carragher, Skrtel and company.
Liverpool will NOT win the Premier League:
Where are goals going to come from? Part of the reason Liverpool have struggled to close games out is the deficiency of a healthy, regular striker. Torres had a brilliant first season, but his role up front is unfit for his style. His goal against Sunderland was practically the first time he had seen the ball all match, which works for a poacher like Michael Owen, but not so much for Torres. Many claimed before Torres came up to the Merseyside that he wasn’t a pure goal scorer, and Liverpool’s midfield seems incapable of involving him regularly in every game. Furthermore, he has shown a high susceptibility to injury.
When Torres is injured, there are few other options. Gerrard will always get his from midfield, but no other Liverpool striker has more than four goals. Liverpool’s title rivals all boast at least two world class strikers. Robbie Keane has been an abomination and appears set for a quick exit.
Liverpool fans may also be inclined to worry about these tight games. Winning late is one thing, but were it not for a fortuitous bounce versus Middlesbrough and a calamitous dive by Gerrard versus Atletico Madrid among other things, this team would be in vastly different circumstances.
Finally, the Reds may struggle with depth late in the season. As with the other big teams, they will be fighting a war on three fronts come January and those exertions may take their toll on a squad that lacks a second string. Liverpool’s first choice eleven is entrenched and their bench options have normally failed to provide much. Will burnout ruin the effervescent Dirk Kuyt, Carragher and Gerrard among others?
What will happen:
Liverpool will finish third. Odds of them winning will be dampened once a bad defeat hits them and doubt slips in. A few bad results will leave coach Rafa Benitez short of answers and they will retreat to their familiar position of just behind the leaders.
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