Premiership Relegation Predictions
Are Derby, Sunderland and Birmingham doomed?
Can the Premier League new boys finish outside the relegation places? If so, how might they do it and could Wigan, Fulham, Middlesbrough and even Reading be in trouble?
Sunderland and Birmingham’s summer spending
Clubs promoted to the Premiership tend to adopt one of two strategies. The first of these is to try and match the squad strength of the sides they will be competing against by spending as much as possible on new players.
Both Birmingham and Sunderland appear to have decided on this option and, if money was the only important factor in football, the two teams’ summer activities would almost guarantee them second helpings at the top table.
Of the trio of promoted sides Sunderland manager Roy Keane has given his club’s wallet the biggest pounding during the off-season. The seven new players he has invested in include Manchester United’s Kieran Richardson, Cardiff’s Michael Chopra and Hearts’ Craig Gordon - whose fee may rise to a British record £9m for a goalkeeper.
Keane is a talismanic figure who can certainly inspire performances from individuals. Whether he has the managerial skills to bring in players of a necessarily high standard and integrate them quickly enough into his side remains to be seen. If he cannot then the ruthless nature of the Premiership will probably mean that he won’t get a second chance straight away.
Not to be outdone Birmingham boss Steve Bruce has strengthened at both the front and back by reaching permanent deals for attackers Kapo and O’Connor and defenders Queudrue, Ridgewell and Parnaby as well as taking Arsenal’s Johan Djourou on loan.
Bruce has the advantage over Keane of previous experience managing in the Premier League and will have a much better idea of the key factors that separate success and failure. On the downside, he currently appears to have a smaller transfer pot and his biggest problem could potentially be new majority shareholder Carson Yeung, who has arrived amidst rumours that he likes to involve himself in team affairs.
Derby favourites for the drop
The alternative approach taken by newly promoted teams is to continue to cautiously live within their means and this is the plan Derby County seem to be using.
Over the summer the Rams’ largest outlays were £3.5m for Norwich striker Robert Earnshaw and £3m for Sheffield United defender Claude Davis and, although the strategy automatically installs the side as relegation favourites and puts the pressure firmly on the shoulders of manager Billy Davies and the majority of the players that won promotion, it does have its benefits.
The first of these is the continuity on the field which should help performances, especially early on. The second is that, if the club does drop down at the end of the season, they will have a sound financial base to deal with the reduced cash flow, players who have experience of achieving success in the Championship and some very useful parachute payments to help towards another push for promotion.
Last season Reading, Sheffield United and Watford all chose the same path as Derby with hugely differing results. It will be interesting to see how the contrasting approaches this season work out.
Other relegation contenders
Of the returning Premiership sides both Reading and Blackburn have spent less than Birmingham and Sunderland but possess experienced managers and squads who are unlikely to find themselves in trouble.
The respective fates of two further small clubs, Fulham and Wigan, may well lie in the performances of their newly appointed managers; although Wigan’s weaker staring position makes them stronger favourites for demotion.
Finally there’s Middlesbrough, who continually seem to struggle in the bottom half of the table. This may be the season they do not have the nous or talent to avoid falling that bit too far.
